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EURUSD: the market awaits new drivers


On Tuesday, trading on the euro closed slightly down. In the span of one day the price made six multidirectional fluctuations. The largest price fluctuations were observed in the evening after publication during the US session. Industrial production in the US increased in September for the fourth straight month. The number of open vacancies in the labor market exceeded the forecast and the pervious figure.

In addition to US data, Brexit news put pressure on the euro and the pound. The Irish Prime Minister is concerned about the lack of progress on the Brexit issue. Based on this, rumours emerged that the meeting of EU and UK leaders could be rescheduled from November to December.

The euro exchange rate after buyers' unsuccessful attempt at passing the resistance at 1.1610 returned to the lb balance line (1.1574). In Asia, sellers are pushing the price to 1.1548.

Day's news (GMT+3):

  • 11:30 UK: retail price index (MoM) (Sep), CPI (MoM) (Sep), PPI - output (MoM) n.s.a. (Sep).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (MoM) (Sep), construction output s.a. (MoM) (Aug).
  • 15:30 Canada: manufacturing shipments (MoM) (Aug), building permits change (Sep), housing starts change (Sep).
  • 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (Oct 12).
  • 21:00 US: FOMC minutes.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

Today's trading session in Asia is similar to yesterday's (fall - rebound). The euro fell to 1.1548. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1565. The price has strayed from the bottom line of the channel (shown on the chart as dotted lines). According to the forecast, I expect the price to recover to the balance line of 1.1575. Higher growth was not considered, although the price could calmly return to 1.16.

Market participants are following news on Brexit and the Italian budget, and are also awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Fed's September meeting. According to the latest CME Group FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures indicate a 77% chance of a rate hike at the December meeting.

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