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EURUSD: markets ready for a downwards correction


On Thursday the 11th of October, the euro rose to 1.1599 against the greenback. During trading in Europe, the EURUSD pair initially rose to 1.1599 following the publication of the minutes of the ECB’s latest meeting on monetary policy (the regulator pans to end its asset-purchasing program by the end of the year). The pair then dropped to 1.1546 on the back of a rise in US10Y bond yields before returning to 1.1599 after the release of US inflation data, which put pressure on the dollar.

Consumer inflation grew slower than expected on both an annual and monthly basis. This tripped markets up given that if this trend persists, it could lead the Fed to revise their rate hike trajectory for 2019.

US data:

  • Initial jobless claims (5 Oct): 214k (forecast: 206k, previous: 207k).
  • CPI (MoM) (Sep): 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.2%).
  • CPI ex food & energy (MoM) (Sep): 0.1% (forecast: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%).

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 09:00 Germany: CPI (Sep).
  • 12:00 Eurozone: industrial production (Aug).
  • 15:30 US: import price index (Sep).
  • 16:30 US: Fed’s Evans speech.
  • 17:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment index (Oct).
  • 20:00 US: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart.

Current situation:

Upwards movement is on hold. Too many highs and bearish divergences have formed over the last 67 hours. The bears failed to break through the trend line on Thursday due to weak US data. The pair has moved just outside of the sell zone between the 112th and 135th degrees. Taking the divergences on the AO and stochastic indicators into account, today I expect to see a downwards correction to 1.1556. The drop will intensify if we break through the trend line. If it holds up and the AO indicator unloads to the zero line, then all bearish divergences will disappear. If this happens, we can expect to see a rise to 1.1620. The single currency is currently being dragged upwards by CAD and GBP.

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