This morning, in the run-up to the opening of the European session, EURUSD is trading at around 1.16875, in other words, almost at the same level as yesterday morning. As I wrote earlier, I do not expect any big changes in the major currency pairs before the ECB monetary policy meeting, the results of which will be published tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3).
However, looking at the fundamentals, the potential for pressure on the euro by the dollar is increasing. According to IHS Markit reports for the European and American economy for July, which were published yesterday at 11:00 (GMT + 3) and 16:45 (GMT + 3) respectively, the Eurozone GDP growth rates will continue to lag behind the US GDP growth rate in the near future. IHS Markit forecasts that in the third quarter of 2018, the Eurozone's GDP growth will be approximately only 0.4% in quarterly terms, and the US GDP - 0.7% QoQ.
Therefore, I suppose that if tomorrow the ECB does not present any surprises, then very soon the pressure on the euro by the dollar will be felt, and the EURUSD pair will slowly go south.
Today it would be a good idea to pay attention to the following macroeconomic data:
On the hourly timeframe (H1), EURUSD has been trying to recover from the potential downwards trend since yesterday:
The chart shows that the EURUSD pair has lately been fluctuating near the trend line (green circle on the chart).
At the moment, it's very difficult to predict how the EURUSD pair will behave before the ECB meeting set to take place in the next 30 hours. Theoretically, looking at the fundamentals, if we consider that the growth rate of the US' GDP is likely to outpace the European growth rates in the coming months, the dollar should put pressure on the euro. Also, by looking at the charts, it appears as though the bearish setup (H1) on the EURUSD pair remains. For the last 24 hours so far nothing has changed, hence, most likely, the EURUSD pair will decline. However, the ECB meeting on monetary policy is ahead, and the EURUSD pair could behave very chaotically in the lead-up to the meeting. As mentioned previously, the EURUSD pair is facing strong resistance at 1.1824.
I would wait for the ECB meeting to wrap up and after that, if the ECB does not change its rhetoric on monetary policy, I would consider, in all likeliness, shorting the EURUSD pair.
Make Yourself at Home on the Forex Market
Alpari Cashback: decide for yourself, what trading terms on the Forex market will work for you! Trade, invest, top up your accounts at Alpari and get bonus points to further enhance your trading and investment terms.Register
Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
We're sorry, an error has occurred. Please try again later.
Notification of this error has been sent to our technical support team.
To be redirected to the European Alpari website, operated by Alpari Europe Ltd.,
a company registered in Malta and regulated by MFSA, click Continue. To remain on this page, click Cancel.
Попробуйте опубликовать пост еще раз либо свяжитесь со службой поддержки социальной сети «ВКонтакте».
У вас есть 24 часа, чтобы получить 50 бонусных баллов за свой репост! Эти баллы вы сможете использовать для улучшения торговых и инвестиционных условий в Альпари, а также уменьшения комиссий за денежные переводы.
Просто авторизуйтесь в своем Личном кабинете или зарегистрируйтесь,
если у вас его еще нет.
Обратите внимание, что для получения баллов нужно разрешить доступ к своей странице ВКонтакте сайту alpari.com/ru/.
Для этого на странице «Мои настройки» во вкладке «Приватность» в разделе «Прочее» вашего аккаунта ВКонтакте в пункте «Кому в интернете видна моя страница» выберите «Всем».
Field filled incorrectly.
This field is required.
This field is required.
Incorrect login or password.