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EURUSD: the price moves towards the balance line


On Friday the 22nd of June, trading on the euro closed up. The US' trade wars with China and the EU had a negative impact on US Treasury bond yields. The yield on 10-year bonds fell from 2.92% to 2.59%. This weakening had a positive impact on the euro.

The single currency also received support from statistics on Germany and the Eurozone, as well as assurances by Italian politicians that their country would not leave the EU, thus causing the euro to rise to 1.1675.

US data:

  • Markit manufacturing PMI (Jun): 54.6 (forecast: 56.3, previous: 56.4).
  • Markit services PMI (Jun): 56.5 (forecast: 56.4, previous: 56.8).

Day's news (GMT+3)

  • 11:00 Germany: IFO business climate (Jun), IFO expectations (Jun), IFO current assessment (Jun).
  • 15:30 US: Chicago Fed national activity index (May).
  • 17:00 US: new home sales change (MoM) (May).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

Current situation:

Our pair lost steam at 1.1675. Buyers haven't managed to overcome the 135th and 45th degrees from the respective lows of 1.1508 and 1.1618. After they passed the level of 1.1630 (the upper border of the channel) and the euro recovered to 1.1675, the bearish trend weakened.

At present, I see a strengthening of the euro against the US dollar as an upward correction. The trend line from the high of 1.2400 (16 April) runs through 1.1768 on the current day. If buyers can break through this level, then we can talk about a change in the trend.

At the time of writing, the euro is worth 1.1639 USD. The price has exited the channel, which is needed to confirm the beginning of a downwards correction in relation to the growth from 1.1508 to 1.1675. According to the forecast, first I expect a drop to 45 degrees - 1.1621.

If the price returns to this before 11:00-12:00 (GMT+3), sellers may demonstrate activity on it to rewrite a low of 1.1618. In this case, the double top model is activated. The target for it is at 1.1560. I did not put a mark on the chart, so keep it in mind.

If sellers can't break through 1.1620, then there'll be an increased risk of prices going up to 1.17.


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