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EURUSD: market in equilibrium


On Friday the 30th of March, trading on the EURUSD pair closed up. During the Asian session, the euro rose against the dollar to 1.2331. In the US session, the pair traded within a narrow range. Market activity was low due to the Easter holidays while US markets were closed.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Mar).
  • 17:00 USA: ISM manufacturing PMI (Mar), construction spending (Feb).

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

We didn’t reach the new low I was expecting on Friday. I overestimated sellers’ chances. They refrained from launching an assault ahead of the long weekend.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.2317. The pair is currently trading around the LB balance line below the 45th degree. Considering that Europe has a day off today, and that the economic calendar in general is virtually empty, the rate could stay at 1.2315 until the opening of the US session.

In my forecast today, I’m predicting a drop in quotes to 1.2293 followed by a return to 1.2316. With the market this thin, be prepared for a testing of 1.2345. There will be few market participants today, so anything can happen. If the price moves according to my plan, then tomorrow I’ll be expecting a drop on the EURUSD pair to 1.2284.

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