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EURUSD: buyers trying to induce a reversal


On Thursday the 8th of February, trading on the euro closed slightly down. A low of 1.2212 was hit on the back of a sharp jump on the British pound and the collapse of the EURGBP cross following the conclusion of the Bank of England’s meeting.

When the cross pair reversed upwards, buyers hit a new session high. The rally failed to continue, however, as global stock markets came under pressure once again. Consequently, there was renewed demand for the safe haven assets: Swiss franc, yen, and gold. The euro eventually stabilised around the 1.2254 mark.

FOMC member William Dudley said yesterday that expectations of three interest rate hikes this year were justified. He added that these expectations were causing the corrective pressure currently weighing down the stock market. US stock traders started closing their long positions in anticipation of the Fed tightening monetary policy.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:30 UK: industrial production (Dec), manufacturing production (Dec), trade balance (Dec).
  • 16:00 UK: NIESR GDP estimate (Jan).
  • 16:30 Canada: unemployment rate (Jan).
  • 21:00 USA: Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Fig 1. EURUSD hourly chart. Source: TradingView

The crosses dragged the euro down to 1.2212 against the greenback, so my expectations of a rise did not come to pass. Still, the pair didn’t drop too far despite the sharp decline on the EURGBP cross. We eventually saw a reversal model form on the hourly timeframe. It looks a bit like a diamond formation, although I’m reluctant to call it that.

The direction in which the price exits this formation should determine the direction for the rest of the day. If the price exits upwards, we can start looking at 1.2313 at the 67th degree and the trend line projected from 1.2518. If the pair exits downwards, the first target for the bears will be 1.2212.

Technical factors and cycles on the hourly timeframe indicate a rising euro. Almost all of the euro crosses are trading up at the moment. The franc and the yen are correcting after yesterday’s movements, which could push the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs up by 20 – 30 pips.

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