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EURUSD: time for a downwards correction


On Friday, trading on the euro/dollar pair closed up. Trading volumes were high, which was enough to hit a new 52-week high with an empty economic calendar. The euro/dollar rate rose to 1.1683.

The general weakness of the US dollar, combined with investor confidence in the reversal of the ECB’s QE program, is pushing the price up.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:30 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jul), Markit services PMI (Jul);
  • 11:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jul), Markit services PMI (Jul);
  • 13:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report;
  • 15:30 Canada: wholesale sales (May);
  • 16:45 USA: Markit manufacturing PMI (Jul), Markit services PMI (Jul);
  • 17:00 USA: existing home sales (Jun).

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The market formed an upwards flag on Friday. It doesn’t bear much resemblance to the ending diagonal due to the wave structure. Still, after hitting a new high in the Asian session, we have a half-formed double top formation and triple bearish divergence.

The euro is currently trading at 1.1671. After 4 peaks, there’s no way I’m going to entertain the euro rising again until we see the rate correct at least to the LB balance line. The bullish impulse is flittering, but the trend remains strong. To give some downwards acceleration, and start some fixing, we need to break 1.1659 and exit the channel. Since the price hasn’t fallen straight away from 1.1684, there’s a chance of the double top transforming into a W-model. Those are my suggestions. These two reversal models and the triple divergence might not work out given that the AO indicator is hovering around the zero line. This means that the price has met with the average lines from which the AO is formed (average lines with periods 5 and 34). My target on the LB is on the 45th degree at 1.1630.

This week, trader attention is going to be focused on the next meeting of the US Fed’s FOMC, as well as preliminary 2nd quarter GDP values for France, the UK and US.


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