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Overview of emerging market currencies: tenge leading in terms of growth

For the period from the 26th to 28th of June, currency markets were again trading rather peacefully, with optimism prevailing over pessimism. Brent oil has risen by 3% in this time. The aftermath of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico as well as the optimism surrounding the G20 summit to take place on the 7th and 8th of July will stop the currencies of developing countries from sliding too far.

The growth leaders for this period are the Kazakhstani tenge (+0.85%) and Brazilian real (+0.84%). The Mexican peso (+0.77%), Chinese yuan (+0.56%) and Russian ruble (+0.26) also rose against the dollar.

The biggest losers of this period were the Turkish lira and Indian rupee, although they still only lost less than half a percentage point.

The Georgian lari and South African rand have been trading in neutral territory.

Important developments

In Brazil, trade balance for May grew by a record 2.4 times against April, reaching 2.9 billion USD. The inflow of foreign currency to the country exceeds the outflow, which is a positive in terms of ending Brazil’s economic crisis.

Business confidence in Turkey fell from 100.5 to 98.9 in June, bringing it down to just below 100, which is an important indicator of business confidence in terms of economic stability. Today, business is not entirely confident that the country’s economy will stabilise any further, which is having a negative impact on the lira exchange rate.

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published a report on currency purchases by nationals. According to the statistics, Kazakh national bought 828.11 million USD in May, which is 9% lower than the corresponding figure for December 2016 and 50% lower than in December 2015. However, it does exceed the figure for January this year by 20% in terms of volume. Nevertheless, the big picture suggests increased trust from the population in their own national currency.


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