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EURUSD: Friday against Monday


Trading on the Euro closed up on Friday. The Euro appreciated against the US dollar and British pound during the New York session. The EURUSD rose to 1.1209 and the EURGBP rose to 0.8805.

It was strange for me when the price jumped from 1.1162 for seemingly no reason. That is to say, before the news, buyers neutralized a bearish signal that had been 60% exhausted.

US data provided support for the single currency, which reported a low level of business activity in the country. The PMIs from Markit on the manufacturing and services industries turned out lower than expected. New home sales turned out higher than expected, but this wasn’t enough to stop the dollar from falling.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 11:00 Germany: IFO business climate (Jun);
  • 11:30 UK: BBA mortgage approvals (May);
  • 15:30 USA: durable goods orders ex transportation (May);
  • 15:30 USA: durable goods orders (May);
  • 20:30 Euro zone: ECB president Mario Draghi’s speech.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView.

Intraday forecast: low: n/a, high: n/a, close: n/a.

The price has restored to the 19th of June’s maximum. The price has been consolidating at 1.1195 level for the last 14 hours. Given that the Euro strengthened on Friday, I’m expecting it to fall today.

I’ve depicted an upwards channel created from three points (H: 1.1178, H: 1.1209, L: 1.11390). My forecast goes as far as the lower boundary of the channel at 1.1177. When the price reaches this level, I’ll continue this forecast.

Cycles indicate that the Euro will weaken before trading closes, so I need to see how quickly it will reach the lb balance line and whether or not it will stop buyers in their tracks. I’m ignoring all news today.


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