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EURUSD: price has stopped at the lb line


On Wednesday the 7th of June, markets were frantic, with participants clashing everywhere. The cause of these collisions were the Reuters and Bloomberg news outlets. Bloomberg reported that the ECB has decided after their meeting to downgrade their forecast for consumer price growth in the Eurozone during 2017-2019. Then it hit the airwaves that the Eurozone's GDP had been revised. Reuters published the results of opinion polls from IFOP and Ipsos, which suggest that the newly-elected president of France, Emmanuel Macron, is set to win the parliamentary elections. The election will be held over two rounds on the 11th and 18th of June. Volatility subsided after European markets closed. The Euro/dollar pair has stabilised around the lb line at 1.1260.

Market expectations:

Trader attention today is focused on the British parliamentary elections, the ECB meeting and Mario Draghi's press conference, as well as former FBI director James Comey's testimony to the Senate. Considering yesterday's fluctuations on the Euro, I think it pointless to make a forecast for every planned event today. I think it better to stay out of the market today and watch from the sidelines.

Day's news (GMT+3):

  • All day in the UK: parliamentary elections;
  • 09:00 Germany: industrial production (Apr);
  • 10:15 Switzerland: CPI (May);
  • 12:00 Eurozone: GDP revised (Q1);
  • 14:45 Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision;
  • 15:15 Canada: housing starts (May);
  • 15:30 Canada: new housing price index (Apr);
  • 15:30 Eurozone: ECB monetary policy statement and press conference;
  • 15:30 USA: initial jobless claims (2 Jun);
  • 17:30 Canada: financial system review;
  • 18:15 Canada: BoC governor Poloz's speech.

EURUSD rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

Intraday forecast: low: n/a, high: n/a, close: n/a.

Let's take a look at the technical analysis. The rumours from Bloomberg about the ECB have pushed the Euro to 67 degrees. Buyers opened long positions from here, shifting the price back to 1.1282 and leaving the daily candlestick with a long lower shadow.

The price range is between the 67th degrees. The price is consolidating on the lb line. I believe that it will stay here until Draghi's press conference. The market has defined its own boundaries at 1.1204 and 1.1285. Beyond these there are some protective stop levels. By the end of the day traders should have determined who will be hunting for stops and where the price is set to move over the next month.


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