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EUR/USD: European participants could counter Asian movement


On Monday the euro/dollar closed down. After a fall in the rate to 1.0579, the pair switched into a correctional phase. Market participant activeness and trading volumes during the American session were low due to it being Martin Luther King Day in the US. The price spent nine hours at 1.0600.

Market expectations:

This week trader attention is on the UK PM, Theresa May (Tuesday), Fed Chief, Janet Yellen (Wednesday), the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the inauguration of Donald Trump as US president (Friday) along with him set to give a speech.

In Asia the USD fell to 1.0643 against the euro. There were no fundamental reasons for this fall. The euro is correcting after yesterday’s weakening.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:30, UK December CPI (+ core CPI), PMI (output and input), RPI and November housing price index;
  • 13:00, German and Eurozone economic sentiment indices from ZEW for January;
  • 14:45, UK PM to speak;
  • 16:30, US NY Fed’s January business activeness in manufacturing index for January;
  • 16:45, FOMC member Dudley to speak;
  • 18:00, FOMC member Brainard to speak.

Technical analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0595 (current Asian), maximum 1.0653, close: 1.0623.

The price missed out on the calculated level (90th degree) by just 14 points. The weakening of the euro stopped at 1.0579. The pair switched into a flat due to the day off and, therefore, lack of liquidity, in the US.

The euro bulls managed to bring the rate back to 1.0643 on the thin market. Since the 45th degree has been passed, it’s likely we’ll see a growth to the 67th degree at 1.0656. A resistance which formed from the 1.0685 and 1.0672 peaks runs just below it.

The price has strengthened above the LB. The balance is tipping in favour of the buyers. However, Europe always heads in the same direction as Asia. I’ve considered some different scenarios for today, but they all tell me that there will be a fall to around 1.0600. Although the intraday pattern doesn’t quite make sense. It may form an L shape (spike) or an M shape.

The uncertainty on the market is also added to by the speech set to be given by UK PM May at 14:45. Volatility for pound pairs will be high and the euro/pound cross’ movements will set the direction for the euro/dollar. As such, we are waiting for May to speak and the market to be put back in the hands of the American participants.


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