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EUR/USD: euro bulls almost fully win back losses


On Wednesday the dollar strengthened across the board. The euro/dollar lost 107 points, falling to 1.0372 after attempting to reach above 1.0480.

The market is low on liquidity, so price fluctuations of one figure without news amount to decent intraday volatility. Don’t look for any drivers causing such a movement. Many traders are taking a break until after the New Year, and in their place are trading robots which are focussed only on technical analysis.

Market expectations:

Trading operation volumes on the Forex market aren’t high. Yesterday the euro fell by one figure. Today it has almost managed to win it all back in Asia. The price restored from a minimum of 1.0327 to 1.0458. The stronger the fall, the sharper the correction. In my forecast I’ve gone for a full covering of yesterday’s fall. On Wednesday the rate dropped by 90 degrees. The same degree from the 1.0327 minimum is at 1.0474. From here a correction is possible. It’s unlikely that the euro will stop at the current level of 1.0458.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 10:00, UK housing price index for December from Nationwide;
  • 12:00, Eurozone M3 money aggregate and private sector borrowing for November;
  • 16:30, US initial unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 25th December, November balance of trade and changes in wholesale reserves in November;
  • 19:00, US oil reserves for the week ending 25th December.

Technical Analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0408 (current Asian), maximum1.0474, close: 1.0446.

Yesterday I expected an inverted pattern to form, but allowed for a break in the trend line. Everything happened fast. The euro began to weaken from trade opening in Europe. In 12 hours the euro fell 107 points to 1.0372 against the dollar.

The fall in the price stopped just below the 90th degree. At the moment the price has bounced to 67 degrees. The quick revival of the euro from the 1.0372 minimum to 1.0460 is forcing me to consider a rise to 1.0474 (90 degrees) in my forecast.

I reckon that by trade opening in the US, the euro bulls will have fully won back yesterday’s losses since no one is looking at the statistics. The close of the day should be around 1.0446.


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