EUR/USD: expected to cede to 1.0417

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On Monday the euro closed slightly up against the USD. By the end of the day the euro had risen by 2 points to 1.0451. In Europe and the US the stock markets were closed due to it being Boxing Day, and so volatility on the currency market was very low. The price range for the daily candle was just 26 points.

Market expectations:

On Tuesday the euro is trading down. At the moment of writing this review, the euro is going for 1.0441 dollars (-0.10%) After Christmas the volumes will start rising, but not by much, Traders will mostly be returning to the markets after New Year.

In Asia the price fell to 1.0432. The battle on the thin market is going on at the LB (55 simple average). In my forecast I’ve gone for a bounce to 1.0450/55 and then a weakening of the euro to 1.0417.

The highest amount of trader activity today is expected during the American session. The returns for American bond yields are up, and so the price could drop down from Europe opening without any upward correction.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • Canada and UK: day off;
  • 17:00, US housing price index in 20 city agglomerates from S&P/Case-Shiller for October;
  • 18:00, US consumer confidence index from The Conference Board for December and the industrial index from the Richmond Fed for December.

Technical Analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0417, maximum1.0456, close: 1.0426.

After a weakening of the euro below yesterday’s minimum this morning, I reckon that the rate will drop to 1.0417 on Tuesday.

Over the Christmas holidays the markets are thin. If the speculators start buying up dollars on the back of American bond yield rises, the euro could fall to the 90th degree at 1.0397. A close of the hourly candle above 1.0460 would cancel out the scenario of a fall to 1.0417.

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