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EUR/USD readying for a fall


On Thursday the euro/dollar closed slightly up. Taking into account that many currencies were down against the USD, the euro helped strengthen the euro/pound and the euro/yen. The euro couldn’t be budged on the American stats. Some believe that the strengthening against the pound was caused by the Bundesbank which has been buying euros for pounds at the end of the month.

Market expectations:

The daily candle closed with an upward shade of 64 points. It is 5.3 times bigger than the body. A spike has formed on the hourly and an inverted hammer has formed on the daily. The candle is inverted, so I expect the euro to drop from 1.0452 to 1.0413. As the holidays approach there will be low liquidity and so we need to bear in mind that there will be big movements on either side for no reason whatsoever.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 10:00, German consumer climate from Gfk for December;
  • 10:45, French GDP for Q3 of 2016;
  • 11:00, Swiss economic barometer from KOF got December;
  • 12:30, UK balance of payments for Q3 of 2016, definitive GDP for Q3, business activity index in the service sector for October and reassessed data for business investment in Q3;
  • 16:30, Canadian October GDP;
  • 18:00, US November primary housing market sales, reassessment of Michigan university’s consumer sentiment index for December and their reassessment of inflation expectations for the month;
  • 21:00, number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes.

Technical Analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0412, maximum: 1.0454, close: 1.0428.

Due to a spike in volatility for the euro/yen and euro/pound, the euro/dollar has jumped to 1.0499. Since the market is a thin one, if there is a turnaround, then the price will return to 1.0432.

The euro has been in a sideways above the trend line for 10 hours. Taking the daily candle with the long shade into account, I expect the euro to fall from 1.0454 to 1.0412. In an ideal world we would see it fall to 90 degrees at 1.0397.

Today I built an ellipsis to show the limits for the price fluctuations. The price should reach the 112th degree without leaving the ellipsis. A break in the right-hand side of the ellipsis will cancel any fall for the euro. It’s not worth expecting a rise above 1.0461. Keep an eye on the crosses before entering into a short. If the crosses rise, don’t sell euro.


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