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Euro reaching for bottom from January 2003


On Tuesday the euro/dollar closed slightly down. The buyers couldn’t win back a large part of their losses that were incurred in the first half of the day. Before the Christmas period liquidity has dropped and so ups and downs for the key pairs is quite usual at this time of year, especially when there’s no important data out. The euro/dollar’s fall stopped at the 112th degree: 1.0352. By trade close in Europe, the price had restored to 1.0408.

Market expectations:

The Asian participants shifted yesterday’s maximum of 1.0408 to 1.0419. The growth in the rate of the dollar has slowed. The euro is reaching for January 2003’s bottom. On the daily we can see a hammer with a bearish body has formed as a result of the bounce. Since the maximum of yesterday’s candle has been passed in Asia, in accordance with the hammer I expect a restoral of the prices to the trend line at 1.0441.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 12:30, UK net state borrowing in November;
  • 17:00, SNB quarterly report;
  • 18:00, Eurozone consumer confidence index for December and US secondary market housing sales in November;
  • 18:30, US oil and gas reserves for the week ending 17th December.

Technical Analysis:


Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0385 (current Asian), maximum: 1.0442, close: 1.0409.

From the 1.0479 maximum, the euro has fallen 112 degrees. The 112-135 zone is an inversion one for the euro. When the price reaches it, where there is no important US macro data, the price will flip. From the 112th degree the euro rose to the LB. The growth was over 45 degrees. The inversion zone is 1.0480-1.0505 (112-135). My target is below, along the trend line at 1.0442. Where the trend is reached we need to keep an eye on how the price acts. If there’s no bounce from the trend then the euro will strengthen to 1.0466 (upper limit of the channel – the dotted line from the 1.0479 maximum).


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