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EUR/USD: flat in Wednesday’s range expected before payrolls


On Wednesday the euro closed down. After an update of the session maximum due to pound sales in the euro/pound cross, the euro fell 115 points to 1.0552. Demand for the USD rose after strong American data from ADP and Chicago PMI which came out better than expected. There was also a growth in the yield of American bonds.

Market expectations:

The nervousness on the market will persist until the end of the week. The OPEC meeting has come and gone. This year there is just Friday’s NFP and the FOMC meeting left. In my forecast I’ve gone for a rise in quotes in the first half of the day to 1.0629, with a subsequent fall to 1.0588. Here I’m putting my money on a correctional movement in the euro/pound cross. In the second half of the day the euro will probably be under pressure since the sellers will switch on with expectations of positive US stats driving their actions.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 11:15, Swiss October retail sales;
  • 11:30, Swiss October manufacturing PMI;
  • 11:55, German definitive November industrial PMI;
  • 12:00, Eurozone definitive November industrial PMI;
  • 12:30, UK November manufacturing PMI;
  • 13:00, Eurozone unemployment level in October;
  • 15:30, US planned ending of employment in November from Challenger;
  • 16:30, US initial unemployment benefit applications for week ending 27th November;
  • 17:30, Canadian November index for business activity in industry from the Royal Bank of Canada;
  • 17:45, US definitive industrial activity index for November;
  • 18:00, US manufacturing index for November from ISM, spending on construction in October, November PMI from ISM;
  • 18:30, US gas reserve changes for week ending 27th November;
  • US sales of automobiles for November expressed as a yearly value.

Technical Analysis:

Euro/ rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView dollar

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0586 (current Asian), maximum: 1.0630, close: 1.0588.

The euro/dollar broke the 90th degree upwards and then dropped from it. After a restoral of the price to 1.0604, I should be calculating the levels from there, but since I expect a growth to the 67th degree, I haven’t bothered. I reckon that the maximum will be updated during trades in Europe.

As I wrote above, in the first half of the day I expect a growth for the euro on the back of a correction movement in the euro/pound cross. Since the 112th degree won’t be reached, any positive American stats will mean the sellers will make this gap. After the release of a run of strong macro indicators, the market participants could start factoring in a strong NFP into the prices. This could well push the euro down to 1.0500.


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