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EUR/USD: expected correction from 1.1067-1.1093


On Tuesday by the end of trades the euro/dollar had risen 79 points and closed at 1.1056. The buyers switched into attack after the publication of weak stats from the UK. During the US session the growth hastened due to polls regarding the US presidential elections. The results of a survey poll showed 45.2% are ready to vote Trump and 44.5% are for Clinton. After this the dollar couldn’t be helped by positive stats from the ISM which showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector was up in October from 51.5 to 51.9 (forecasted: 51.7).

Market expectations:

The euro/dollar is trading at around 1.1069. At the moment of writing this analysis, the price has reached the 112th degree. The level is a strong one, so from here I only see a weakening for the euro to 1.1027 against the dollar. The euro is trading at its week’s maximum. Before trade opening in Europe it’s likely we’ll see a rise to 1.1075.

The US Fed will let us know its interest rate decision this evening. There shouldn’t be any surprises. It’s expected everything will be left unchanged. This time Yellen won’t speak, so I don’t reckon we’ll see high volatility.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 10:00, UK housing price index for October from Nationwide;
  • From 11:15 to 12:00, PMIs of France Germany, Italy, Spain and the Eurozone;
  • 11:55, German unemployment changes in September;
  • 12:30, UK PMI for the construction sector in October;
  • 15:15, US employment changes (excluding in agriculture) according to ADP for October;
  • 17:30, US oil reserve changes for the week ending 30th October;
  • 20:30, BoC’s Wilkins speaking;
  • 21:00, FOMC interest rate decision and accompanying speech.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1026, maximum: 1.1069, close: 1.1040.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

I didn’t think that the euro would get such a boost from the crosses. At the moment on the daily 1.1115 is the target. This is with my intraday forecast for Tuesday looking southbound. The zone between the 112th and 135th degrees is an inversion one, so after an update of the maximum in Asia, I reckon we’re to correct to around 1.1016-1.1027. This is something technical that I just can’t ignore. As for the Fed decision: read above.


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