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Expected fall for EUR/USD


On Wednesday as part of a correctional movement, the euro/dollar rose to 1.0947. The pair then dropped from this maximum after US stats came out. The values for the business activity index in the service sector and primary market housing sales in the US exceeded expectations. By trade close in New York, the euro had fallen to 1.0900 and to 1.0892 on Thursday in Asia.

Market expectations:

Since the daily picture is still bearish, after an upward correction we can consider a downward impulse. In my forecast I’ve gone for a fall to 1.0868. Market participants are waiting for the first US GDP assessment for Q3. The report will be out on Friday. Before the FOMC meeting on 2nd November, the data will have real significance for the US Fed and will have a real effect on the movements of key pairs. According to the latest data from CME Group FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of an interest rate hike in December is 78.3%.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 09:00, Swiss consumer indicator for September from UBS;
  • 11:00, Eurozone M3 money supply and private lending in September;
  • 11:30, UK preliminary GDP data for Q3 of 2016 and the index for business activity in services for August;
  • 13:00, UK retail sales in October according to the Confederation of British Industry;
  • 15:30, US durable goods orders in September and initial unemployment benefit requests for the week ending 22nd October;
  • 17:00, US incomplete housing sales in September.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0868, maximum: 1.0912 (current Asian), close: 1.0879.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

On Wednesday the euro/dollar corrected by almost 90 degrees. The correction wasn’t out of the ordinary. In Asia the rate dropped to the LB (45th degree). The market is balanced at the moment. The price could stray from it at any moment. Since the day’s trend is bearish, I’m in the bear camp. In my forecast I’ve gone for a fall of the euro to the 67th degree at 1.0869. If the price reaches this before the American session then we can shift the target to 1.0843.


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