EUR/USD technically ready for drop

Alpari Analyst

Alpari analyst

Previous:

On Monday 24th October, the euro/dollar closed close to its opening level. During European trades the euro gained against the USD to 1.0900. It missed out on reaching the calculated level by 11 points. The rate returned to 1.0870.

The American statistics supported the dollar. The index for business activity in the manufacturing sector in the US from Markit rose to 53.2 from a September value of 51.5.

Market expectations:

The hourly indicators offloaded for Monday. The price is at the balance line, so now we can shift to 1.0830. There are no important stats expected today. Although in the evening Draghi and Carney are expected to speak. Again, they have a real effect on the market after their respective central bank meetings. Since the market’s memory doesn’t extend past three days, participants won’t remember and will sell euro before Draghi speaks.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 11:00, German business climate index for October from Ifo;
  • 16:00, US August housing price index and the version from S&P/CS;
  • 17:00, US consumer confidence in October from the CB, IBD/TIPP’s October economic optimism index and the Richmond Fed’s index for manufacturing activities in October;
  • 17:35, BoE’s Carney to speak;
  • 18:30, ECB’s Draghi to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0827, maximum: 1.0822 (current Asian), close: 1.0845.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

My expected movements came off, but they didn’t quite make it to the 1.0911 calculated level; missing out on it by 11 points. So where next for the euro? I reckon it will drop to 1.0830. The euro is trading by the LB. The support runs through 1.0859. As soon as the sellers pass through 1.0859/56, the road to 1.0830 will open. It seems to me that we will reach the calculated level on one set of stops. The euro could fall lower in accordance with the trend. Stick with your sight under the 1.0815 level.

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