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EUR/USD: factors indicating a correction


On Friday, 21st October, the euro/dollar closed down. During the day three bottoms formed at 1.0896 (Asia), 1.0878 (Europe) and 1.0859 (USA). Pressure on the euro came from Draghi’s announcements on Thursday and his press conference after the ECB convened, in addition to expectations of a US rate rise before the end of the year.

Draghi signalled that there will be no sharp halt to QE and that it will probably be extended.

Pressure increased during the American session due to a weakening of the Canadian after an announcement by the country’s trade minister. She announced that the long negotiations for the creation of a free-trade zone between the EU and Canada have ended in collapse. The USD/CAD rose 120 points to 1.3355. Other currencies followed this fall against the dollar.

Market expectations:

The euro is still under pressure. Moreover there are three interesting things. The first is that today is Monday. On this day, independent of the news, my forecast always goes against that of Friday. Secondly, a double bottom has appeared on the hourly. Thirdly, the oscillator stochastic has flipped downside up and the CCI has crossed -100. The technical picture is indicating an upward correction to 1.0911, but the many long positions indicate a fall to 1.0825.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 10:30, German preliminary index for business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors in October;
  • 11:00, Eurozone preliminary index for business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors in October;
  • 13:00, German central bank to publish monthly report and UK expected industrial orders from the CBI for October;
  • 15:30, Canadian August wholesales;
  • 16:00, FOMC’s Dudley to speak;
  • 16:05, FOMC’s Bullard to speak;
  • 16:45, US preliminary index for business activity in manufacturing for October;
  • 19:15, SNB president to speak;
  • 22:30, BoC governor to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.0860 (current Asian), maximum: 1.0911, close: 1.0888.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro/dollar dropped to 1.0859 on Friday. After a correction to 1.0899, the price returned to 1.0860. At the time of writing this review, the euro is trading at 1.0867. Since it is Monday and I expect a movement against that of Friday, I say there will be a rise to 1.0911. Today I am developing my thought of a forming of a double bottom price pattern. Due to the crowd continuing to buy euros even though it is falling, we could see it hit 1.0850. In this case I will have to look at a V pattern forming. It’s dangerous to buy euro with the crowd. It’s safer to buy euro after a bounce.


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