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Expected flat for euro until FOMC convenes


On Monday the euro/dollar closed up. Due to a fall in the value of the dollar, the euro lifted to 1.1198. By the close of the day, the price returned to 1.1170. The economic calendar was empty, so I don’t see the point in commenting on a correctional movement against that of Friday.

Market expectations:

The pair is trading in a limited range in expectance of the US Fed meeting. Futures for an interest rate rise show that the likelihood of a rise in September is 12%, whilst it is 53.9% for December.

In my forecast I have risked going for a return of the rate to 1.12. It’s unlikely to go higher before the Fed meeting. If the growth doesn’t reach 1.1180 in Europe, risks of a return to 1.1150 will be on the rise. Tuesday’s calendar is empty, so be ready for some swings. I reckon the close will be around 1.1178.

Day’s News (GMT+3):

  • 09:00, Swiss balance of trade and German PMI for August;
  • 15:30, US construction permits issued and foundations lain in August;
  • 19:35, Bank of Canada Governor Poloz to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1165/68, maximum: 1.1198, close: 1.1178.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro has corrected to 1.1198. There were but 5 more points until the calculated level. The pair has corrected by 61.8%, from 1.1150 to 1.1198. If the bounce was 38.2%, we can sit and wait for the euro to strengthen to 1.1215. With a correction of 62% we can expect it only to hit 1.1198. in this case it will be unclear what state Europe will open in.

Since the oscillator stochastic is in the buy zone, I reckon the euro will strengthen in the first half of the day and weaken in the second.

The euro bulls need to strengthen above 1.1180 asap. In this case we could easily see my forecast ringing true.

If Europe opens with a fall for the euro, risks of a fall to 1.1150 will rise.


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