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Euro reviving after Friday’s weakening


The euro/dollar on Friday closed down. The USD strengthened on strong US labour market data. The amplitude of the price fluctuations was a full figure because of the news.

Job creation outside the agricultural sector in July increased 255k against a 180k forecast. The numbers for the two previous months were reassessed upwards. May rose from 11k to 24k and June rose from 287 to 292. This is a total reassessment rise of 18k.

The level of people in the working population rose by 0.1% to 62.8% and the unemployment level remained unchanged at 4.9% (forecasted: 4.8%). The US hourly wage index in June was up 0.3% (forecasted: 0.2%, previous: 0.1%).

June’s data turned out significantly better than that of March (200k higher). The stats published increased the likelihood of a US interest rate rise this year. According to data from the futures market on interest rates, the likelihood of a September interest rate rise has increased from 9% to 15% and in December from 29.4% to 38.4%.

Over the course of two hours the euro/dollar dropped to 1.1046. By trade close the price had returned to 1.1105.

Market Expectations:

I always look at a movement against that of Friday after the payrolls. The fall of the euro/dollar was partially reversed. The 1.1120 and 1.1140 levels will be today’s resistances. By trade close I expect a revival of the pair to the hourly trend line at 1.1123. After the release of US GDP, one single good NFP will not be enough for the Fed to put up rates in September. The news today is little.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 9:00, German industrial Manufacturing in June;
  • 10:15, Swiss July CPI;
  • 11:30, Eurozone investor confidence index for August from Sentix;
  • 15:30, Canadian June construction permits.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1073, maximum: 1.1125, close: 1.1123.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro was reaching for the support around the 157th degree on Friday. From the 1.1046 minimum, the price restored to 1.1105 (45 degrees). 1.1120 and 1.1140 are today’s resistances. The first level is formed at the LB and the second is from the trend line.

The price could head up without a rebound, or it could first return to 1.1073. I reckon the euro will rise without rebounding. I’m not looking at the economic calendar. By the close of the day I expect a rise in the EUR/USD to the hourly trend line at 1.1123.


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