Prices of oil are continuing to restore and this is not only being facilitated by falling US oil reserves, but also a rethink of the Brexit referendum’s consequences. Data from the EIA on Wednesday showed that oil had fallen more than expected (down 4.053 million barrels against an expected 2.375 million barrel fall). As for the Brexit, the first reaction to the referendum on commodity markets, excluding gold, but including oil, was a fall due to the rise in likelihood of a slowing of growth in the global economy. However, with a few days passed, it’s become clear that the rise in risk will hinder a rise in Fed rates in the coming time, and this is already a factor which is supporting oil and other commodities, in addition to stock markets. Brent oil closed above the key $50 marker yesterday; heading from $48.7 to $50.1 over the course of the day. Oil this morning has been trading in a $50.7 - $50.9 range.
Thanks to the probability of a US tightening of monetary policy drifting further into the future, the majority of world stock markets are continuing their rise. The Asian markets aren’t an exception this morning, other than China. The Nikkei 225 rose by 0.4%. The ASX Australia lifted 1.7%. The Shanghai Composite fell by 0.2%, and the Hang Seng increased by 1.4%. Futures for the S&P500 were trading at 2062; 0.2% up on the previous trading day.
The outlook for the global economy is still unclear, the Brexit has led to fluctuations on the stock markets, but the government of Hong Kong is already fully ready for this, as noted by Leung Chun-ying – the head of the government there – when making a speech at an event dedicated to the 16th anniversary of the opening of the Hong Kong stock exchange. Leung Chun-ying said that the Hong Kong administration will do everything in its power to provide enough market liquidity and preserve stability of currency rates and interest rates. The executive director of the Hong Kong stock exchange, Li Xiaojia, noted that the Brexit outcome will continue to affect market stability, with its effects becoming more notable. However the Hong Kong economy has sturdy foundations, with the Hong Kong government working together with the stock market there to secure the smooth running of stock markets.
The USD was trading slightly up against the yuan at 6.6440 (+0.0072 or +0.11%).
After three days of positions lost during the UK referendum restoring, the EUR/USD fell during the Asian session. After a growth yesterday from 1.1060 to 1.1120, the pair today has fallen to 1.1090. The further from the referendum we get, the less volatility we’ll see. This will continue, at the very least, whilst there is still a lack of clarity about the UK leaving the EU. Today the EU is publishing preliminary June inflation data. It’s expected that the CPI is unchanged YoY, whilst the base CPI will have risen by 0.8% in this time.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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