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Expected Continuation of Upward Correction


The euro/dollar on Tuesday closed slightly up. Support for the pair came from a weakening dollar. Traders are continuing to analyse the consequences of Brexit. The euro closed at 1.1063 where it still sits trading.

Market Expectations:

Market participants are waiting for news from the EU leaders summit taking place in Brussels. News is slow and what there is isn’t enough to have a real effect on the market. Whilst there’s no decision made regarding the UK, I’ll risk saying the euro will again strengthen, this time to 1.1123.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 9:00, German consumer confidence from Gfk for June. UK housing price index for June from Nationwide;
  • 11:30, UK changes in credit financing for individuals in May;
  • 15:30, US base CPI according to personal consumption expenditure in May, consumer expenditure in May and consumer incomes;
  • 17:00, US changes in uncompleted housing sales in May;
  • 17:30, US oil reserves for the week ending 26th June;
  • 18:00, German preliminary CPI for June;
  • 22:30, US bank stress test results.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1049 (current Asian), maximum: 1.1123, close: 1.1095.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro/dollar has restored to the 112th degree and from there a downward correction followed. Above the balance line a triangle in a triangle is forming. I expect the price to exit upwards from there. I fully understand that the fluctuations up and down will persist whilst the situation with the UK still hangs in the balance. However, I reckon we’re to see an upwards movement of the euro/dollar as part of a correction after Friday, 24th June’s fall. My forecast for growth is to cancel with a close of the hourly candle below 1.1030.

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