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Expected Euro Fall to 1.1094 Before ECB Convenes

Yesterday’s Trading:

On Tuesday the daily candle closed with a pinbar. The fall of the GBP didn’t allow the euro bulls to strengthen above the trend line. By the end of trading, a false break in the trend line was fixed.

The euro/dollar updated the session maximum due to American statistics and then followed the pound downwards from a 1.1173 maximum to 1.1125.

The pound/dollar was in swinging style with two surveys from the ORB and ICM on the prospective Brexit. The first showed that the number of Brits ready to vote leave has risen to 46%, with the in campaigners at 51%. The second survey showed that the number of leavers has risen to 45%, whilst inners are down to 42%.

As the referendum approaches, volatility on the pound will only increase. It’s difficult to imagine what to expect from the incoming weekly surveys at the start of each week. The technical signals for the pound won’t work well.

The US May consumer confidence index was at 92.6 (forecasted: 96.4, previous: reassessed from 94.2 to 94.7).

The business activity index of Chicago association of managers in May was 49.3 (forecasted: 51.0, previous: 50.4).

The US personal incomes index remained as was at 0.4% The US spending index rose to 1.0%.

Market Expectations:

The euro/dollar at 7:15 EET was trading at 1.1121 against a 1.1114 Asian minimum. As the ECB meeting and NFP approach, I expect a fall to 1.1097. Via a double bottom we could switch into a long upward correction from the trend line.

Day’s News (EET):

  • 10:30, Swiss May manufacturing PMI;
  • From 10:15 to 11:00, EU May manufacturing PMIs;
  • 11:30, UK index for May manufacturing activity;
  • 16:30, Canadian business activity in industry during May from the Royal Bank of Canada;
  • 16:45, US industrial activity index in May;
  • 17:00, US ISM business activity index in manufacturing throughout May, spending on construction in April, ISM manufacturing prices in May;
  • 21:00, US Beige Book out.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday forecast: minimum: 1.1094, maximum: 1.1152, close: 1.1110.

Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView

The euro/dollar in Asia has found a support at the 45 degree Gann level: 1.1120. Yesterday’s spike on the daily is a bearish pinbar. After this the price often reverses and only then it heads for the minimum.

In our case we have the pinbar minimum broken, but, nevertheless, the likelihood of a return of the price to the trend line due to a strengthening of the Aussie dollar (after decent Australian stats) is still on the cards.

The important day for the euro is Thursday. I reckon the euro/dollar is to drop to the trend line before Draghi speaks. If 1.1095/97 is reached then a bounce will start a double bottom off.

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