On Monday the euro/dollar restored to 1.1279 (45th degree) due to a general weakening of the dollar. The euro strengthened against the USD despite it weakening against the GBP. The pound was generating demand since, according to recent surveys, the likelihood of the UK leaving the EU has fallen below 30%.
Weak data on the US housing market came out during the American session. In Mach, sales of new homes in the US had fallen by 1.5% (forecasted: 1.0%, previous reassessed from 2.0% to -0.4%).
The euro/dollar has spent the last 12 hours trading in a narrow range near the balance line. The current flat is playing into the buyers hands since the euro/pound cross is beginning to correct after yesterday’s fall, thereby allowing it to strengthen against the US dollar. Since the pound/dollar’s upward movement is burning out, the euro has a chance to reach 1.13. This is what I reckon will happen.
Market participant attention is on the results of the US Fed open market meeting. We will know the score on Wednesday. No change in interest rates is expected. The Fed’s assessment of the global economy and their further plans for monetary policy will be important for traders.
Day’s News (EET):
11:30, UK data on March mortgage approvals from BBA;
15:30, March durable goods orders in US;
15:55, BoC’s Poloz to speak;
16:00, US housing price index for February from S&P/CS (weak indicator);
16:45, US preliminary April service sector business activity index;
17:00, US April consumer confidence and Richmond Fed’s April manufacturing activity index;
20:00, BoE’s Cunliffe to speak;
23:35, API’s report on US oil reserves for this week.
I would rather the euro not lift above 1.1279. In this case the day pinbar for 21st April would be put in jeopardy. The sellers need to close the day below 1.1268. In my forecast I’ve gone for an intraday /\ pattern. The lower the closing price, the stronger the sellers will be. A close of the euro above 1.1305 means we can forget about a weakening of the euro and the pinbar.