The euro closed up against the US dollar on Friday. The European and American calendars were empty, so market participants were focussing on stock market, bonds and oil market movements.
The European and American stock indices closed up. Brent was up to $41.97. The euro dollar restored to 1.1417.
The calendar is empty again today, so traders’ attention is focussed on Dudley and Kaplan speaking during the American session. Since today is Monday (correction day), my forecast goes against Friday’s movements. I expect to see a correctional movement towards 45 degrees (1.1372) for the EURUSD.
This evening, finance minister Jacob Lew and Fed representatives Dudley and Kaplan are to speak.
Brent has shifted Friday’s maximum to $42.36. The euro/dollar followed oil in updating its maximum. The rate at 06:33 EET was 1.1407 against an Asian maximum of 1.1425. The euro is trading close to the balance line. Since the calendar is empty, on my forecast I’ve gone for a weakening of the euro to 1.1370-1.1375.
Keep an eye on the movements of the euro/pound cross. A triangle has formed on the hourly and the price could leave it in any direction. I expect to see it leave downwards, creating pressure on the euro in its pair with the dollar.