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Expected Euro Fluctuations in 1.1250 – 1.3335 range

Yesterday’s Trading:

The euro/dollar on Friday closed down. The ECB’s head economist Peter Praet hinted at a possible extension of their current monetary stance. The euro found a support at 1.1255. From here the rate restored to 1.1306. US stats helped it to restore to this level. The strengthening underwent some interference from the euro/pound which had fallen from trade close in the US.

Preliminary figures for US consumer confidence in the university of Michigan’s index for March stood at 90.0 (forecasted: 92.2, previous: 91.7).

Market Expectations:

Today is Monday: correction day. There isn’t much news out. We could even say that the economic calendar is empty. There are no drivers for sharp fluctuations on the key pairs. By the end of the day we should see the EUR/USD at 1.1290.

Day’s News (EET):

13:00, UK industrial order data.

16:00, US February housing sales in the secondary market.

17:00, Eurozone March consumer confidence index.

18:00, FOMC member Lockhart to speak.

Technical Analysis:

Intraday target maximum: 1.1305, minimum: 1.1250, close: 1.1290.

Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The euro/dollar has returned to the LB from the U3. The euro/dollar on the hourly is balanced. Since the oscillator stochastic is up and the AO is down, I first expect the euro to fall to 1.1250 and then to rise to 1.1305. The fluctuations should occur in a 1.1250 – 1.1335 range.

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