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EURUSD sees easing volatility

During the first half of Thursday’s trading session, the EURUSD pair showed heightened market volatility due to the ratcheting up of tensions on the Ukraine-Russia border, but this reaction gradually subsided, and the amplitude of fluctuations started to flatten.

Macro releases stateside were patchy. Building permits outpaced the median consensus. At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, initial jobless claims, and housing starts turned out worse than expected. However, all this news had only a limited impact on the key pair, and did not improve its dynamics.

Technically, the EURUSD pair is squeezed within a symmetrical triangle, trading quite close to the top, so a quick exit from the triangle is inevitable in the near future. The direction in which the break occurs will show which way the pair moves next, up to the 1.1396 resistance level or down to support at 1.1280.

On Monday, a large string of Markit PMIs for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be released.

Upcoming macro releases (GMT+3)


  • 16:00 Eurozone: ECB Elderson speech
  • 18:00 Eurozone: Consumer confidence flash (February)
  • 19:00 US: Fed monetary policy report
  • 21:30 Eurozone: ECB Panetta speech

Monday, February 21

  • 10:00 Germany: PPI (MoM, Jan)
  • 11:30 Germany: Markit services PMI flash (Feb)
  • 11:30 Germany: Markit composite PMI (Feb)
  • 11:30 Germany: Markit manufacturing PMI flash (Feb)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: Markit composite PMI flash (Feb)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: Markit services PMI flash (Feb)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: Markit manufacturing PMI flash (Feb)

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