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Euro finds temporary support at 1.1830

The EURUSD pair slid 0.25% to 1.1841 on Tuesday, September 7. Risk aversion hit the Australian dollar as it weakened after the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. Investors were unimpressed that the RBA extended its bond purchase program until February 2022. The key pair has held at 1.1870 for a long time, but was forced to retreat along with all other major currencies. By the close, the euro fell to 1.1838.

Todays macro agenda (GMT+3)

11:10 Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debell speech

17:00 Bank of Canada interest rate decision, post-meeting statement

17:00 US: JOLTS job openings, July

17:00 US: IBD/TIPP economic optimism (September)

18:00 UK: BoE Governor Andrey Bailey, Ben Broadbent, Sir David Ramsden, Silvana Tenreyro speeches

20:10 FOMC member John Williams speech

21:00 US: Fed Beige Book

22:00 US: consumer credit change (July)

Current outlook

The dollar is stable, while Treasury bonds remain under pressure. The 10-year US Treasury yield remained at 1.365%. The dollar is likely to remain resilient amid calls from FOMC members to taper its bond buying program, despite a soft NFP report released on September 3. Profit-taking on stocks could trigger a move into defensive assets, from which the dollar would stand to gain.

Technical analysis

From a technical standpoint, bearish risks prevail. The EURUSD pair declined to 1.1829 during the Asian session. Price action technically dropped to the lower line of the channel which was supported by the 67-degree angle. Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, investors are treading cautiously amid optimistic Eurozone GDP and Delta Covid flareups. In case the 1.1827 support line is breached, the pullback will pick up to 1.1800.

Buyers bounced off the 67-degree angle and are attempting to strengthen the emerging momentum on the 5-minute chart. The US 10-year Treasury yield has started to decline. If buyers manage to raise the price to 1.1860, then we can say that the flight from risk assets is over.

Bottom line: By Tuesday’s close the single currency fell against the US dollar. The market saw a flight from risk-sensitive assets (oil, gold, crypto, AUD, NZD). Speculators have stopped buying the greenback as the UST yields are in decline. There is hope for recovery of the EURUSD pair to 1.1855/60. If the 1.1827 support line is breached, the pullback will accelerate to 1.1800.

EURUSD-080921

 

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