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Euro attempts to track Antipodeans higher

The EURUSD pair logged mild gains on Monday, August 2, up 0.02% to 1.1870. During the day, the market showed multidirectional dynamics. In early European trading, the price action climbed to 1.1897. During the North American session, the bulls saw all gains erased, with the key pair retracing to 1.1865.

Market participants are at a loss, since, due to conflicting data stateside they do not know where to park their assets until the Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, which is scheduled for August 26-28.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 10:00 Switzerland: SECO consumer climate index (Q3)
  • 12:00 Eurozone: PPI (June)
  • 17:00 US: factory orders (June)
  • 23:30 API weekly inventories

Current outlook

By the time of writing, the euro was trading at 1.1877. The pair is hovering near the 55-day SMA (balance line) within Friday's range of 1.1852-1.1909. The market is balanced and looks set for some sharp price fluctuations. Today the euro is trying to move higher the same way it did in yesterday's scenario. Major currencies are trading in positive territory, except for the Canadian dollar. The leaderboard is topped so far by the Australian dollar (+0.66%) and the New Zealand dollar (+0.61%).

An uptrend in the aussie and kiwi rise points to risk appetite in the market. Given that the EURGBP cross has been on the rise for the past two days, if the cross continues to ascend we expect the euro to strengthen to 1.1897.

Overall, the outlook remains uncertain across all markets due to rising Covid cases. EURUSD could either rise sharply to 1.1900, or quickly retrace to 1.1827 (67-degree angle). On the hourly TF, a triangular pattern has formed within a range of 1.1870-1.1890. At this point, only time will tell which way the price action heads.

The focus remains on the July NFP report due out on Friday. It will be the last major report before Jackson Hole. The median consensus is calling for 880k.


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