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EURUSD could drop to 1.1781

The EURUSD pair closed slightly lower on Monday, July 12. Price action started at 1.1875. During the day, the pair climbed as high as 1.1880, then dropped to 1.1836 and closed the session near 1.1860.

On Tuesday, Germany released the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June. In line with expectations, it came in at 2.1% YoY. During APAC trading, the pair rose to 1.1875 and then eased to 1.1850.

At 12:30 GMT a string of June inflation data will be released stateside. Experts expect the CPI, excluding food and energy, to grow by 4.0% YoY and 0.4% MoM. If inflation overshoots the target, the market may view this as a chance for the Fed to start tapering monetary policy soon than expected. This, in turn, would be positive news for the dollar, and the EURUSD pair could sink as low as 1.1781.

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