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EURUSD: euro marks time at the balance line

EURUSD dipped 0.02% to 1.2192 on Friday, May 28. The pair slid to 1.2133 after US macro data came out. Having retraced to its intraday low, the price action reversed sharply higher amid a decline in the 10-year UST yield to 1.579%. By the close, the pair moved back to 1.2205, while the DXY fell from 90.43 to 89.97.

The core PCE index rose to 3.1%, outpacing the median consensus that called for 2.9% and 1.9% in March. In monthly terms, the index stood at 0.7% vs. 0.6% expected and the previous reading of 0.4%.

The core personal consumption expenditure index tracks the change in prices for a fixed basket of consumer goods and services purchased by US residents. Investors considered the rise in inflation to be transitory, so bond yields narrowed.

Today’s macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 15:00 Germany: CPI (May)
  • 15:30 Canada:  PPI (April) and balance of payment (Q1)

Current outlook

At the time of writing, the euro was trading at 1.2189, at the DXY stood at 90.07. Today is a holiday in the UK and the US. The American fixed income market is offline, so the market will be devoid of guidance today.

Among major currencies, the aussie dollar has been showing the strongest gains against the greenback today. The news flow is low-key. Major pairs will likely keep trading sideway until Tuesday. Today’s trading range for EURUSD is 1.2150 (3) –1.2215 (2).

Bottom line: after Friday's pullback, EURUSD recovered to 1.2205 and has been trading sideways above the balance line (55-day SMA) for 14 hours. Volumes are subdued as US and UK stock exchanges are closed in observance of national holidays. Key pairs are expected to continue trading near the flatline until tomorrow.

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