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EURUSD: euro bulls aim to break out of 1.20

The euro jumped 0.25% to 1.1978 on Wednesday, April 14. The price action rose to 1.1987 during the North American session. The gains were stoked by cross pair trading and a rally in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Euro sentiment drew support from vaccine talk by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, while remarks by Fed Chair Powell also lent support.

Von der Leyen said the EU will receive 50 mln BioNTech-Pfizer Covid-19 vaccines earlier than expected. Powell said the Fed will scale back its $120 bln monthly government bond purchases well before raising interest rates.

Todays macro agenda (GMT+3)

  • 11:00 Eurozone: ECB economic bulletin
  • 11:30 UK: BOE credit conditions survey
  • 15:30 US: retail sales (March); weekly initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, New York Fed manufacturing index (April); Canada: manufacturing sales (February)
  • 23:00 US: foreign bond investment (February)

Current outlook

Major currencies are showing mixed performance today. The New Zealand dollar is again a key driver, followed by the pound and the yen. The euro is close to moving into positive territory. At the time of writing, the euro was trading at 1.1975. The price action is under slight pressure from cross pairs.

On Thursday, resistance is at the 1.20 handle (the 112-degree angle). Given that UST yields are widening, buyers will have the chance to retrace to recent highs today. The wave structure from the 1.1877 low (Apr 13) is not reliable for sustained gains, so we advise going long if and when this retracement shapes up. Investors could take profit on long positions in case of triple divergence. If sellers fail to hold the 1.1990 level, the 1.2030 level could still be tested. Support awaits at 1.1952.

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