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EURUSD: euro awaits correction ahead of North American opening

The EURUSD pair ended higher on Tuesday, April 13, advancing 0.31% to 1.1947. The rebound from 1.1877 followed publication of US March inflation data. The DXY and 10-year Treasury yields retreated in response to the report. As it turned out, inflation ran below 3%, allaying investor concerns that the Fed could taper its accommodative stance.

As the CPI report showed, core inflation stateside rose to 1.6% in March, up from 1.3% in February and ahead of the 1.5% median forecast. In YoY terms, inflation grew by 2.6% compared to 2.5% in February. Monthly CPI jumped 0.6% MoM vs. the 0.5% median consensus and the 0.4% prior reading.

Todays macro schedule (GMT+3)

  • 12:00 Eurozone: industrial production (February)
  • 15:30 US: import prices (March)
  • 17:00 Eurozone: ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
  • 17:30 US: EIA weekly petroleum status report
  • 19:00 US: Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech
  • 21:00 US: Fed Beige Book

Current outlook

Major currencies have been trading in positive territory against the US dollar in Asian trading. Topping today’s leader board is the New Zealand dollar (+0.75%), followed by the Australian dollar (+0.56%).

In market news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate (OCR) steady at 0.25%. The Large Asset Purchase Program (LSAP) remained at NZD 100 bln. The regulator said it will maintain the current monetary policy settings until it is certain that inflation and employment targets are met.

The euro is currently trading at an intraday high of 1.1969. The 10-year US government yield is correcting upward after dropping to 1.6130. If the correction in the 10-year yield continues, we should expect a downward correction to 1.1945 in line with a sharp pullback to 1.1930.


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