According to data published yesterday, the global index for dairy produce is down again, dropping by 1.4% against a previous fall of 1.6% at the last auction.
Data published today in New Zealand showed that Q4 of 2015 consumer inflation was down by 0.5%, with a -0.1% YoY fall. This is the lowest CPI for the country since 1999.
The USD/NZD has fallen from 0.6485 to 0.6349 since yesterday. The market opinion is that the RBNZ will be forced to drop its rate by 50 basis points this year in order to push inflation up to the 1-3% target. It’s probable that the regulator will stave off such a decision at their next meeting, but later this year we could well see an easing of Kiwi monetary policy.
A set of stats came out of the UK today. The unemployment level in the country throughout December fell from 5.2% to 5.1% MoM, thus being better than expected. Meanwhile, average salaries in September-November increased by 1.9% against an expected 1.8%. The number of unemployment benefit applications was down by 4,300 against an expected 4,100 growth. The number of employed increased by 267,000 and so was better than the expected 235,000 and previous 207,000.
A slowing of inflation for UK salaries, coupled with weak standard inflation data isn’t allowing the BoE to act swiftly with regards to hiking the interest rate for the UK. Furthermore, the state of the Chinese economy is also putting pressure on the UK economy. Yesterday the Bank’s governor Carney gave quite a clear indication that the dates for the rise will be shifted. If wage inflation increases then the dates could be reassessed.
After the pound’s fall yesterday it sits at around 1.4148 against the dollar and 0.7709 against the euro.
Of today’s other events it’s worth taking a look at the US’ CPI and housing construction permits. There is a Bank of Canada meeting in which a decision on an interest rate change will be taken.
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Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.
Director of Alpari's analytical department
## ojimadu position
Senior Alpari analyst
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