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EURUSD: euro hovers in narrowing price range

The EURUSD pair ended in decline on Thursday, December 24, slipping 0.03% to 1.2179. Market participants was focused on the endgame of UK-EU trade talks. The GBPUSD pair rose to 1.3619 on expectations that a last-minute trade deal would be struck. The dollar edged higher after the deal was clinched. All European and North American trading floors were closed on Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday.

Todays macro agenda (GMT+3)

Markets are offline in the UK, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada

Current outlook

On Monday, December 28, major currencies, including gold, have been trading in positive territory during Asian trading. US President Donald Trump set the stage for an upbeat external news flow. To avoid a government shutdown, he signed off on the country's fiscal 2021 budget that started on October 1 for a total of $2.3 trln, including a $900 bln pandemic aid package. On December 28, the House of Representatives will vote on whether to increase the stimulus-check amount to $2,000.

The UK and the EU have entered into a trade deal that will allow tariff-free trade to continue from 1 January next year. The agreement still needs to be ratified in the parliaments of the UK and EU member states, and EU leaders must sign the document.

The European Commission has published the full text of the draft EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) following the country's withdrawal from the Community (Brexit). The volume of the document is 1,246 pages.

The ambassadors of the 27 EU countries will need to address this document. Then all member states will have to unanimously approve these resolutions in the European Council by February 1. After that, the agreement can be formally signed. We assume that some surprises might be in store by February.

Given that there are just three days left until the New Year, only bitcoin could pop a surprise in terms of volatility, with weekly gains reaching $5,000. No strong moves will likely be seen in currencies. The euro is currently trading at $1.2220. Today EURUSD is expected to rise to $1.2240, following a pullback to 1.2205. In addition, the key pair could break out of the $1.2250 resistance level before Thursday.


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