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EURUSD: correction on the dollar across the market

The US recorded a record number of new coronavirus cases in a day at 45,500. This brought about a retreat to safe havens, a rise on the dollar, and a decline in stock indices. China warned of the possibility of annulling its trade deal with the US.

On Friday the 26th of June, trading on the euro closed roughly around Thursday’s closing price despite increased intraday volatility. On the same day, the US recorded a record number of new COVID-19 infections at 45,500. This rise in cases in several states had a negative effect on investor sentiment. Texas and Florida have closed bars. Some restrictions are also being put in several European cities.

US stock indices have dropped by about 2.5%. The S&P 500 shed 2.42% to reach 3,009.05 points. The EURUSD pair dropped to 1.1195, but then managed to recover to 1.1238 thanks to increased demand for the euro on the crosses.

China has warned that if the US continues to interfere in Hong Kong, the first stage of the trade deal would be under threat. By the end of the day’s trading, US stock indices (DIJA, S&P 500) had dropped by about 2.5%.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Jun), business climate (Jun), economic sentiment indicator (Jun), industrial confidence (Jun).
  • 12:30 UK: BoE’s Governor Bailey speech.
  • 15:00 Germany: harmonised index of consumer prices (Jun).
  • 15:30 Canada: PPI (May).
  • 17:00 US: pending home sales (May).

Current situation:

In today’s Asian session, the majors are all trading up against the US dollar. The pound has made impressive gains at 0.43% following Friday’s drop. At 12:30 (EET), Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will speak. He won’t be talking about monetary policy, so his words shouldn’t have much of an impact on the GBPUSD pair. The EURUSD pair has now risen to 1.1259.

Most assets are still largely at the mercy of coronavirus headlines. The S&P 500 is in a difficult situation after the bears managed to break through the trend line last week. If they continue on the offensive, the whole market may collapse. Closing the week above 3,100 would ease pressure on the stock market.

Today’s market open is reminiscent of the 22nd of June. We’re forecasting at rise to 1.1270, followed by a correction to 1.1247, and then another rise to 1.1275. The BoE governor’s speech and inflation data from Germany are the key fundamentals to look out for.

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