EURUSD: risk mode is back on

Last week, the following events had an impact on the Forex market:

  • Increased demand for risky assets.
  • The WHO announced that the coronavirus pandemic has entered a “new and dangerous phase”.
  • US stock indices fell.
  • Apple announced that the company will be closing some of its stores.

On Friday the 19th of June, trading on the euro closed down. The euro shed 0.29% against the dollar to reach 1.1173. The EURUSD pair suffered a decline on the back of risk aversion. The S&P 500 index dropped by 0.56% after the WHO declared that the coronavirus pandemic had entered a “new and dangerous phase”.

In light of the situation with COVID-19, Apple has decided to temporarily close some of its stores across the US. Stores will be closed in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Arizona.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • 13:00 UK: CBI industrial trends survey - orders (Jun).
  • 15:30 US: Chicago Fed national activity index (May).
  • 17:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Jun).
  • 18:00 Canada: BoC’s governor Macklem speech.

Current situation:

Expectations of a drop to 1.1170 were met. The bears were very quick to cancel out the rise from 1.1197 to 1.1254, bringing the rate all the way back down to our projected level. On Monday the 22nd of June, trading on the US dollar index opened down. Today’s biggest winner so far is the Aussie dollar, which is trading 0.40% up. This may be thanks to RBA Governor Philip Lowe’s speech earlier.

In today’s Asian session, market participants have returned from the weekend with an appetite for risk. Beijing reported a reduction in the number of new coronavirus cases, which gave markets a much-needed boost.The Axios news site has reported that US President Donald Trump refrained from imposing new sanctions on China in order to push through a trade deal worth 250bn USD. This also gave markets some peace of mind with regard to the strained relations between the US and China.

We’re forecasting a recovery to 1.1223. By the end of the week, the pair should be poised to test 1.13. In order for this to happen, the bulls need to keep their heads above 1.1170 for the next couple of days before pushing upwards to 1.1255.

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