EURUSD: markets awaiting Powell’s speech

On Tuesday the 9th of June, trading on the euro closed up. The EURUSD pair rose by 0.4% to reach 1.1339. In the European session, the pair dropped to 1.1241 before coming back with a vengeance. There were no fundamental factors driving this. The euro rose to 1.1364 after the market entered a correctional phase. The euro-bulls were helped along by the rising EURGBP cross.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 15:30 US: CPI (May).
  • 17:30 US: EIA crude oil stocks change (5 Jun).
  • 21:00 US: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.
  • 21:30 US: FOMC press conference.

Current situation:

The two-day FOMC meeting, which ends today, is at the centre of attention. The results of the meeting will be announced at 21:00 EET, with a press conference to follow at 21:30. No one is expecting the FOMC to change interest rates, but people will be interested to know how much of an influence May’s employment figures will have on the regulator’s economic outlook.

At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.1361. The pair may continue to rise until around 18:00 EET. The upper line of the Andrews pitchfork runs through 1.1398. The high from the 5th of June is providing resistance at 1.1384. We’re forecasting a rise to 1.1395 followed by a drop to 1.1291 after 18:00 EET. The drop may intensify after the FOMC meeting.

If today’s forecast works out, a double top will form. Remember that this may not happen. We haven’t taken Jerome Powell’s speech into account. Our forecast is based on cycles and pricing models.

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