EURUSD: bulls trying to return to 1.0900

On Tuesday the 28th of April, trading on the euro closed down by 9 pips. In the European session, the euro rose to 1.0889. By close, the EURUSD pair had dropped 71 pips to 1.0818.

The dollar has again come under pressure from the majors amid rising stock indices. US stock indices began the day on a positive note before closing with declines ranging from 0.13% to 1.4% as the tech sector posted big losses.

US consumer confidence fell short of expectations. A report released by the Conference Board showed that US consumer confidence in April fell to its lowest level since 2014 (86.9 points), although consumer expectations improved.

Day’s news (GMT + 3):

  • 13:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Apr), business climate (Apr), industrial confidence (Apr), economic sentiment indicator (Apr).
  • 15:00 Germany: CPI (Apr).
  • 15:30 US: GDP (Q1).
  • 17:00 US: pending home sales (Mar).
  • 17:30 EIA crude oil stocks change (24 Apr).
  • 21:00 US: Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement.
  • 21:30 US: FOMC press conference.
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Current situation:

Tuesday’s forecast didn’t come off. Buyers took advantage of the increased demand for risky assets on account of rising stock indices. They also failed to defend 1.0890. In anticipation of upcoming events, the pair returned to the channel, erasing all previous gains.

In the Asian session, the majors are trading up against the US dollar. The growth of stock indices and oil prices had a positive impact on the foreign exchange market. The EURUSD pair is following the growth leaders (NZD, AUD, CAD) upwards.

The price is near the balance line (1.0840) within a range of 1.0810 - 1.0890. At the time of writing, the euro is trading at 1.0848. Too many factors are currently affecting the pair.

On Tuesday, the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee began. After the meeting, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. On Thursday, a meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. Additionally, a report on the Eurozone’s GDP will be released.

In such uncertainty, there’s not much point making a forecast given that any news and the reaction to it can change everything. However, we can share some thoughts. For a rally, the bulls first need to break through 1.0900. If futures on US stock indices continue to rise, the bulls may risk testing 1.0900 before the ECB meeting. It would be better to break 1.0900 on Thursday. In this case, the price model will be more successful for a reversal. There’s still a risk of the pair dropping to 1.0790.

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