EURUSD: employment report expected to spark a reversal

On Wednesday the 1st of April, trading on the euro closed down, with the EURUSD pair sliding to 1.0903. Pressure was piled on the euro in the US session during President Trump’s press conference. He warned of a tough couple of weeks ahead. Investors are nervous over the serious toll that COVID-19 has taken on the global economy. Manufacturing production has slowed down, and economies around the world are expecting a drop in GDP.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: PPI (Feb).
  • 15:30 US: trade balance (Feb), initial jobless claims (27 Mar).
  • 17:00 US: factory orders (Feb).
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Current situation:

We correctly predicted yesterday’s trajectory. The bears went on the offensive in the European session, bringing the rate down to 1.0903. From there, the pair began a recovery towards the balance line.

The pair is currently trading at 1.0935. Today’s central focus will be the US report on initial jobless claims, where around 3.5 million new people are expected to have made claims for unemployment benefits. Markets have already factored in this pessimistic prediction. If the actual figure turns out to be closer to 5 million, we can expect to see a sharp decline on the US dollar across the board. It’s difficult to say with any certainty what the actual figure will be, so there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding the market at the moment. This isn’t helped by the fact that the NFP report comes out tomorrow.

Let’s see if we can find a link between the technicals and fundamentals. Since we didn’t see a sharp rebound from 1.0930, we may see some cleaning take place, which could then take us up to 1.1040. This would be the ideal scenario for today. There may not be any fresh lows, and we may even get a double bottom model. It would be better for the bulls to see three lower lows, which would provide more growth potential. However, if 1.0883 doesn’t hold up, the bears will power through to 1.0815.

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