EURUSD: euro expected to fall before the weekend

On Thursday, March 26, the euro was up by 148 points (+1.36%), to 1.1087, at the end of trading. The dollar fell in price throughout the market. The euro began to rise in price from the opening of the European session and gained momentum after the release of a report with data concerning new applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. By the close of the day, the price was at 1.1059.

The number of new applications for unemployment amounted to 3.283 million. Claims in California increased by 129,200, to 186,800. In the state of New York, where about half of all known cases of coronavirus in the USA are located, the number of applications increased by 66,000, to 80,300. Claims in Ohio rose to 187,800, in Illinois - to 114,700, in Florida - to 74,000, in Michigan - to 129,300. The market began to lay down prices in expectation of weak report on the US labour market, which will be released on Friday, April 3.

Positives for risky assets also came from stock indices. At the end of the day, the DJIA and S&P500 indexes grew by 6%. The stock market is supported by the decisions taken by the US Federal Reserve aimed at increasing liquidity. On Thursday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the regulator will act aggressively if problems arise in the money market.

The Chinese government has adopted a package of measures worth $344 billion USD to support the country's economy.

Today’s news (GMT+3):

  • 15:30 USA: Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (MoM) (Feb), Personal Income (MoM) (Feb).
  • 18:00 USA: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar).
  • 20:00 USA: Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count.

Current situation:

On Thursday, bulls reached the target area of ​​1.0980 ahead of time. Expectations for growth and renewal of the maximum price were fully met. In Asian trading, the euro rose to 1.1087. According to the forecast, I expect a correctional movement up to the 90th degree, to 1.0982. I do not exclude that possibility of the correction increasing ahead of the weekend.

The US Senate voted to adopt a stimulus package of more than $2 trillion USD. Today, the bill will be discussed in the House of Representatives.

I am now worried about another factor. The US now has the highest number of coronavirus infections in the world. The total number of cases is 85,900, 1296 (1.5%) have died, and 753 people recovered. The rapid spread of the virus has had a negative impact on investors. Yes, regulators have taken incentive measures to support financial markets, but the human factor plays a big role here. If people really start to panic, we could see a run on the banks. It is believed that someone will try to take advantage of the situation to check which banks have problems with liquidity and how quickly they will introduce limits on cash withdrawals. Therefore, due to a poor report on US unemployment claims, the euro target is set at 1.1280 for today.

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