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EURUSD: euro expected to recover to 1.0900

On Tuesday, March 24, the EURUSD pair was slightly up at the end of trading. At the European session, buyers moved the intraday high to 1.0888, from which the price fell back down to the balance line.

US stock indexes rose by about 10%. The euro did not participate in this rally, but came under pressure from cross-pairs in the American session. The stock market grew on expectations of the adoption of a package of emergency economic measures aimed at alieving the consequences of the coronavirus. Today it became known that the US Senate and President Donald Trump’s Administration agreed on a package for stimulating the economy, worth $2 trillion USD.

Today’s events (GMT+3):

  • 12:00 Switzerland: ZEW Survey - Expectations (Mar).
  • 12:00 Germany: IFO - Business Climate (Mar), IFO - Current Assessment (Mar), IFO - Expectations (Mar).
  • 12:30 UK: DCLG House Price Index (YoY) (Jan).
  • 14:00 UK: CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) (Mar).
  • 15:30 USA: Durable Goods Orders (Feb),    Nondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft (Feb).
  • 16:00 Switzerland: SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
  • 17:30 USA: EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (Mar 20).

Current situation:

Expectations for the return of prices to the balance line were fully justified. As soon as the price emerged from the triangular formation, the fall to the balance line (Lb, sma55) accelerated. The Lb at that time was strengthened by the trend. The price has strayed from the lines and has so far recovered by 77 points, to 1.0823.

All major currencies are trading positive against the US dollar. The euro is in fifth place (+0.34%) in the ranking. Since the stochastic is on top, and most crosses with the euro are trading in the "red" zone, there is the likelihood of a repeated test of the trend line. According to the forecast, I expect growth to 1.0900. The MA line U3 will be a resistance. The forecast for growth will cancel if the hourly candle closes below 1.0746.

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