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EURUSD: surge in volatility expected ahead of the NFP report


On Thursday the 4th of July, trading on the euro closed slightly up. Trading activity was low due to the national holiday in the US (Independence Day). The euro is trading in a sideways trend, but within a narrower range than markets were expecting. The pair spent the day trading around the balance line.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 10:30 UK: Halifax house prices (Jun).
  • 15:30 US: nonfarm payrolls (Jun), unemployment rate (Jun) average hourly earnings (Jun), average weekly hours (Jun), labour force participation rate (Jun).
  • 15:30 Canada: unemployment rate (Jun), net change in employment (Jun).
  • 17:00 Canada: Ivey PMI (Jun).
  • 18:00 US: Fed monetary policy report.

Current situation:

The NFP report comes out in the US at 15:30 (EET). This is important for the Fed ahead of their July meeting. Economists are predicting 150-180k new jobs outside the agricultural sector in June, against 75k in May, and expect unemployment to remain at its current level of 3.6%.

At the time of writing, the EURUSD is trading at 1.1272. The single currency is down 0.10% against the dollar. Volatility is expected to surge ahead of the NFP report. If the numbers disappoint, the euro will reverse upwards, but is unlikely to go any higher than 1.1340. On the other hand, if the NFP report is positive, the euro could drop to 1.1212 as the dollar rises across the board.

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