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EURUSD: bulls trying to get back to the trend line


On Thursday the 16th of May, trading on the euro closed down. The single currency came under pressure during the US session after the release of strong American data. The dollar was also boosted by a rise in US10Y bond yields.

The number of housing start in the US in April turned out higher than expected, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index saw a significant improvement in May.

The euro is also being weighed down by fears over European parliament elections taking place next week, as well as continued trade tensions between the US and China.

The US has placed Chinese firm Huawei on a blacklist that restricts access to its products. While the US Trade Representative Ross Wilbur said this ban has nothing to do with the ongoing trade talks between the US and China, the decision has triggered a retreat towards safe haven assets on the market. Moreover, the weekend is approaching, so nobody wants to hold positions that could open with a gap on Monday.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 12:00 Eurozone: CPI (Apr).
  • 17:00 US: Michigan consumer sentiment index (May).
  • 18:15 US: Fed’s Williams speech.
  • 20:00 Baker Hughes US oil rig count.

Current situation:

Yesterday’s expectations of a rise on the euro failed to materialise. As trading opened in Europe, the pair rose to the trend line, while I was expect it to rise to it via a rebound. The wave structure of the pricing model ended up changing. In the US session, the bears broke the trend line, testing the lower boundary of the support zone at 1.1115.

At the time of writing the euro is trading at 1.1179. The US dollar is trading down against the franc, yen, and New Zealand dollar. Given that the stochastic is in the sell zone, I’m expecting the pair to drop to the lower line of the channel at 1.1150 during the first half of European trading. The economic events calendar is empty except for inflation data from the Eurozone.

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