EURUSD: with the Easter holidays over, expect a test of 1.1230


On Monday the 22nd of April, trading on the euro closed slightly up. An upwards correction restored the pair to 1.1262. As the Easter holidays continued, currency markets got a boost from developments in the oil market. Brent oil rose by 3.5% to 74.50 USD per barrel. This surge was caused by reports that Washington is set to stop providing exemptions from Iranian oil sanctions. This news also pushed the Canadian dollar up, bringing a few other currencies with it.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 15:30 Canada: wholesale sales (Feb).
  • 16:00 US: housing price index (Feb).
  • 17:00 US: new home sales (Mar), Richmond Fed manufacturing index (Apr).
  • 17:00 Eurozone: consumer confidence (Apr).
  • 23:30 US: API weekly crude oil stock (19 Apr).

Current situation:

With a thin market, the bulls managed to push through to 1.1262. A correction occurred within a relatively narrow price range. At the time of writing, the pair is sitting around the balance line and the lower boundary of the channel. The current pricing model is bearish.

In Asia, all the majors are trading down against the greenback. The euro crosses are showing mixed dynamics. I’m forecasting a drop to 1.1230/35 as traders return to work following the long Easter weekend.

I reckon we’ll get a proper upwards correction on the euro after revisiting the 1.1226 low. Even if the pair stays in the 1.1240 – 1.1265 range today, I’ll still expect a decline. If the bears don’t make new lows on Wednesday, then I’ll switch to the bull camp.

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