EURUSD: weak US data has increased appetite for risk

Previous:

On Friday the 15th of March, trading on the euro closed slightly up (+0.18%). Trading on the EURUSD pair was mixed throughout all the day’s trading sessions. Volatility was high in the US session, during which the euro rose to 1.1344 as a result of weak US economic data dragging the dollar down.

Data released showed a drop in production in the US in February for the second month running, while manufacturing activity in New York was weaker than expected. For the US Fed, this data is indicative of an economic slowdown in the US. The regulator could make adjustments to its monetary policy based on these figures.

Day’s news (GMT+3):

  • 13:00 Eurozone: trade balance (Jan).
  • 14:00 Germany: German Buba monthly report.
  • 15:30 Canada: foreign portfolio investment in Canadian securities (Jan), Canadian portfolio investment in foreign securities (Jan).
  • 17:00 US: NAHB housing market index (Mar).
  • 23:00 NZ: Westpac consumer survey (Q1).
EURUSD H1

Current situation:

Friday’s reversal points matched my forecast line in terms of timing, but not in terms of amplitude. Weak US data shifted market sentiment towards risky assets, for which demand has remained up to the time of writing. All the majors are trading up against the dollar except for the yen.

On Friday, I made a forecast going up to the 19th of March. During the phase of decline, the bulls managed to successfully defend 1.13. The breakout of the trend line turned out to be false. I’ve left my old forecast on the chart. Until the pair breaks the 135th degree, there’s still a risk of sliding to 1.1260

I’ve drawn a line through the highs at 1.1388 and 1.1344, and drawn a parallel line below through 1.1294. Today, I expect price movements to remain above the trend line and below 1.1350.

The rebound from 1.1300 has increased the chances of a breakout of 1.1350, with subsequent growth to 1.1376. The pair is rising without trading volume. If significant volume appears on the current hour, it will signify that traders are cashing in on their positions and this will mark the beginning of a correction. My forecast includes a rebound, but you should bear in mind that these are my expectations of a reversal. If the pair doesn’t drop during the phase of decline, it should start dropping after 14:00 EET.

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