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Daily analytical report (05/02/19)

  • Last night, we had an interest rate decision from the RBA, which positively affected both AUD and NZD. This wasn’t actually caused by the decision itself, but by the statement from the RBA. Market participants think that after this statement, the next movement should be hawkish and that is why they opened long positions on AUD. NZD also went higher, driven mostly by the strong correlation between the two currencies.
  • We start our technical analysis with the AUDNZD pair, where we can see a nice upswing. This did not occur in a random place and is present on an ultra important horizontal support. The buy signal is ON, but patient traders can wait for confirmation via a breakout of the yellow horizontal resistance. Once that happens, the upswing should gain momentum.
  • Now on to USDCHF. The V-shaped reversal that started in mid-January entered the new stage. We are on a strong horizontal resistance and in February buyers will make their first attempt at breaking it. It had already been tested in January and those tests resulted in bearish reversals. This can be seen as a good omen for short-term sellers. We have to mention that this resistance is exactly on the balance line, so the psychological aspect plays an additional role here.
  • Last up is EURNZD, which was mentioned on our website yesterday. Here, we have a bounce from the mid-term downwards trend line and a breakout from the bullish flag. What’s more, we have a double top formation and both those bullish movements are false breakouts. All that together gives us a strong sell signal strengthened additionally by the hawkish RBA mentioned in the first paragraph.

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