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Euro/Dollar: Technical Picture Contradictory


Yesterday’s Trading:

By the end of Tuesday, the euro was up against the dollar by 60 points to 1.0891. The Swiss franc was also stronger against the USD. The Aussie and the pound were down. The market is undergoing a correctional phase after the ECB meeting and Draghi’s words.

Main news of the day (EET):

  • 09:00, German balance of trade and payments for October;
  • 17:30, US oil reserves;
  • 22:00, RBNZ interest rate decision and press conference.

Market Expectations:

I don’t see any readiness on the market for simultaneous, unidirectional movement of currency pairs. I think that the correction will continue until Thursday. If I were to pick the most important out of today’s events, I’d have to highlight the RBNZ meeting.

Technical Analysis:

  • Intraday target maximum: 1.0947, minimum: 1.0878 (current Asian), close: 1.0898;
  • Intraday volatility for last 10 weeks: 103 points (4 figures).

The euro has renewed its session maximum against the dollar in Asia. The euro/dollar is trading at the U1 line around 1.0902. The technical picture across the key pairs is contradictory, so I believe the market will sit in a correctional phase until Thursday.

As for the euro/dollar, any support from the euro/pound will leave me expecting to see a growth to 1.0947 with a subsequent bounce to 1.0898. Taking into account that the pound/dollar has closed of Thursday’s growth by 76%, it’s doubtful that the euro/dollar will head above 1.0980.

EUR/USD Hourly Graph


The euro/dollar has restored to 1.0913 from 1.0795. On the daily and weekly time-frames, the tendency for euro growth persists. If we look at the intraday graphs and the mixed dynamic between the key pairs, we don’t get any confirmation of a euro strengthening. Now to the Weekly.

EUR/USD Daily Graph


I’m keeping my eye on the forming of a double bottom price pattern.

EUR/USD Weekly Graph


Forecasts which are made in the review constitute the personal view of the author. Commentaries made do not constitute trade recommendations or guidance for working on financial markets. Alpari bears no responsibility whatsoever for any possible losses (or other forms of damage), whether direct or indirect, which may occur in case of using material published in the review.

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